The most expensive Medicare mistake is doing nothing
Medicare open enrollment starts this Thursday, October 15, and runs through December 7. Any change you make takes effect January 1, 2027. If you are already on Medicare, you just got the most important 54 days of your financial year.
And the timing could not be louder. Tomorrow, October 14, the 2027 Social Security raise gets announced, and I broke down what that raise really means for your monthly check earlier this week. Now the 2027 Medicare numbers are out too, and the headline looks like pure good news. The average Medicare Advantage premium is projected to fall from $14.37 a month to $12.00, a 16.5% drop. Drug premiums inside those plans are projected to fall 38%, from $11.32 to $7.00. Standalone Part D plans barely move, rising from $35.09 to $36.00.
Lower premiums everywhere. Sounds like you can skip this year and stay put, right?
That is exactly the trap. I have spent 21 years as an insurance broker in Florida, and I can tell you that a falling average premium tells you almost nothing about YOUR plan. The average got cheaper. Your plan still changed. And if you do nothing, your plan from last year will quietly become a different plan on January 1, with a new price tag on the parts that matter most.
Good headlines make lazy shoppers
Here is what the rosy numbers actually mean. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services says about 8 in 10 Medicare Advantage members will be able to stay in their current plan at the same premium or a lower one in 2027. More than 99% of beneficiaries will still have access to at least one Advantage plan, and 97% will have 10 or more to choose from.
Choice is good. Choice also means the details shifted under your feet.
Every fall, insurers rewrite the fine print. The deductible climbs. A drug slides to a higher tier. Your doctor quietly leaves the network. The monthly premium looks familiar while the coverage underneath it moves. Your insurer mailed you the proof in September: the Annual Notice of Change. It is the single most important piece of mail you got this fall, and most people never open it.
Then there is the noise problem. Federal rules on Medicare marketing are being loosened, which means this enrollment season will bring more aggressive sales calls, more glossy mailers, and more TV ads promising dental, vision, and grocery benefits. Watch out. A plan chosen from a commercial is a plan chosen with someone else’s priorities. The only comparison that matters runs on your drugs, your doctors, and your zip code.
Four checks that actually protect your wallet
Forget the ads. Here is what a broker would check if you were sitting across my desk.
1. Run your exact drug list through Medicare Plan Finder
Drug coverage is where most retirees lose money, and it changes every single year. A medication that sat on tier 2 last year can land on tier 4 this year, and your copay can triple overnight. Pull out every prescription you take, with dosages, and enter them into the Plan Finder on Medicare.gov with your preferred pharmacy. It calculates your total estimated cost across plans, premiums plus copays, which is the only number that counts. Do not compare drug plans by premium alone.
2. Confirm every doctor is still in network
Network changes are the most common surprise in Medicare Advantage, and they are the most expensive one. Plans drop physicians and hospitals every year. Online directories go stale, so do not trust the website alone. Call each doctor’s office and ask directly whether they will be in network with your specific plan for 2027. Online, seniors share the same story every October: they learned in February that the specialist they had seen for years was suddenly out of network. A five minute phone call in October beats a five thousand dollar surprise in February.
3. Price the whole year, not the premium
A $0 premium plan is not a free plan. Medicare Advantage plans with rock bottom premiums often carry higher copays per visit, higher hospital coinsurance, and strict prior authorization rules before you can get an MRI, a procedure, or a specialist referral. Original Medicare gives you a wider provider network but leaves you exposed on the 20% coinsurance unless you carry a supplement. The right question is never which premium is lower. It is which plan costs less in the year you actually use care. Run two scenarios: the healthy year where you mostly see your primary doctor, and the heavy year with a surgery or a hospital stay. The “expensive” premium plan often wins the heavy year by thousands.
4. Know the Medigap catch before you leave Advantage
During open enrollment you are allowed to drop a Medicare Advantage plan and return to Original Medicare. Here is what the ads never mention: if you want a Medigap supplement to cover Original Medicare’s gaps, you may have to pass medical underwriting depending on your state and your history. A health condition can mean a denial or a much higher price. Investigate your Medigap eligibility BEFORE you give up your Advantage plan, not after. And if you need help sorting any of this out for free, your State Health Insurance Assistance Program at shiphelp.org exists for exactly this. No sales pitch. Just counselors.
Your one week action plan
Do not let this sit until December. Here is your week.
Day one. Find your Annual Notice of Change from September. Write down your 2027 premium, deductible, and maximum out of pocket. Those three numbers are your baseline.
Day two. List every doctor you see, every prescription you take, and any care you expect next year.
Day three. Run your drug list and zip code through Medicare Plan Finder. Compare two or three plans on total yearly cost, not just the premium.
Day four. Call your doctors’ offices to verify they are in network for 2027.
Day five. Enroll in the winner, or confirm in writing that you are staying put. Then set a calendar reminder for next October to do it all again.
If 2026 has you rethinking retirement itself, not just your health plan, read my honest take on whether early retirement still works. For more ways to keep your money working in every season of life, browse the Money Hub.
The bottom line
Lower average premiums are good news, but averages do not pay your copays. Your plan changed in ways the headline cannot see. Open your Annual Notice of Change, run your drugs through Plan Finder, verify your doctors, and price the whole year. Then enroll with confidence instead of hope.
Medicare open enrollment closes December 7. Miss it and you live with the default for all of 2027. Do not let the default choose for you.
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